Repost on how to win Senate races

This comes via HST who commented at Greg's Opinion.

How do Democrats win Senate?

1) Hold Open Democratic Seats

Maryland (Congressman Ben Cardin looks like Democrats' best hope.)

Minnesota (Republican Congressman Mark Green will be formidable opponent for whichever Democrats wins nomination. None of the Democratic candidates has high name recognition. Too bad somebody like former Congressman Tim Penny or HHH's son, former State Attorney General, is not running. Mondale's Son, much more moderate than Dad, would also possibly have been a good choice, even though both he and HHH, Jr., bit the dust two gubernatorial elections ago. Pawlenty, current Republican governor, also lost to Ventura.)

New Jersey (Corzine running for governor. Half Democratic Congressmen see a Senator when look in mirror. Democrats could have trouble if former moderate Republican Governor Tom Keene's son wins Republican nomination.)

Vermont (Democratic candidate is self-proclaimed Socialist Congressman Bernie Sanders. Not my kind of Democrat. Could have some trouble if Republican Lt. Governor Brian Dubie runs, but Dubie may decide has better chance of taking Sanders' House seat. Unfortunate that Independent Senator Jeffords, moderate former Republican who caucuses with Democrats, has retired because of concerns over wife.)

2) Hold Seats facing potentially serious Republican Challenges

Florida (Things looking up for Bill Nelson. Katherine Harris is her own worst enemy)
Michigan (Stabenow, along with Cantwell, was supposed to be one of Democrats' weakest incumbents. However, Republicans having trouble fielding good candidate.)
Nebraska (Ben Nelson yet to get truly formidable Republican opponent.)
North Dakota (Kent Conrad praying Republican Governor Hoeven doesn't get into race. Would be fierce contest. Hoeven very popular, perhaps more so than Conrad.)
Washington (Cantwell was supposed to be in trouble, but so far polls showing her to be in pretty good shape.)
West Virginia (Byrd may have trouble against Republican Congresswoman Shelley Moore Capito if she runs. Her Dad, a former governor and ex-convict, and the RSCC certainly want her to run. She is the Republicans' only hope. Her Daddy is hoping for ultimate political vindication. Thus far, polls matching Byrd against Capito show him winning, but he is old and many West Virginians think he is now "too Liberal.")

3) Win Six of the Following Seats, or More if Things Worse Than Hoped Above. Only eight seats listed below. Hardly seems likely, unless Democrats get further breaks.

Arizona (Pederson just entered race)
Mississippi (If Trent Lott decides not to run -- lost house in Katrina and most of net worth, Democrats would have very remote chance of pickup. Under those circumstances, following Democrats could run: former Congressman and Cabinet Secretary Mike Espy, State Supreme Court Justice James Graves, State Attorney General Jim Hood, former Governor Ray Mabus, ex-Attorney General Mike Moore, and Congressman Gene Taylor.)
Missouri (McCaskill taking on Talent. Nearly elected governor in 2004.)
Montana (Morrison and Tester competing to take on Conrad Burns. Under right conditions, Burns could have trouble, although currently running ten points or more ahead. Close ties to Abramoff.)
Ohio (No candidate yet. At this point, two Democratic gubernatorial candidates and no Senate candidates. Best current bet is if pugilistic Iraq veteran Paul Hackett gets in. Nearly won overwhelmingly Republican Seat in special election in/near Cincinnati.)
Pennsylvania (Pro-life, pro-gun and pro-Defense Casey giving Santorum the scare of his life)
Virginia (No candidate for Democrats yet. Best bet was centrist Governor Mark Warner but seems intent on running for President. Some rumors that Republican James Webb, former Navy Secretary, thinking of challenging Allen as either a Republican or Democrat. Webb is conservative and a Hawk, but was violently opposed to Iraq and has nothing but contempt for Bush. Doubt much basis to this hope.)
Rhode Island (Center-Left Sheldon Whitehouse and very Liberal Matt Brown competing to take on Chafee. Chafee also faces challenge from right. Moderate Democratic Congressman Jim Langevin would have given Chafee a real race for his money; however, womens groups and pro-Abortion groups ran Langevin out of the race. Democrats best bet is if right beats Chafee in Republican primary. Liberal Democrats doubtlessly cheering on Right-Wing Club for Growth in RI.)

This is not my analysis but someone elses.