•Droppers are more than the base. The Obama voters who stayed home in 2010 encompass more than the Democratic base. In fact, 40% of droppers are Independent and 63% describe themselves as either moderate (31%) or conservative (32%). Moreover, droppers are concerned about fiscal discipline, with 58% saying they would be more likely to support President Obama again in 2012 if he makes a serious proposal to reduce the deficit.
•For switchers, it was more than the economy. 2010 was more than a referendum on the economy. Switchers—11% liberal, 45% moderate, and 39% conservative—are also dissatisfied with the Democratic policy agenda and the party brand, which they perceive as too liberal. Sixty-six percent of switchers said “too much government spending” was a major reason for their vote, and 68% say they would be more likely to support President Obama in 2012 if he offered a serious proposal to reduce the deficit.
•Republicans won a chance, not a mandate. Republicans should be wary of over-reading their victories. Just 20% of switchers say that a major reason for voting Republican was that “Republicans had better ideas.” Neither switchers nor droppers view the Republican Party as an ideologically perfect fit. Only 38% of droppers see Republicans as “where you are” ideologically, and 44% say Republicans are more conservative than they are.
Thursday, November 18, 2010
Third Way has issued a press release following a survey of voters that voted in 2008 for President Barack Obama. It has some interesting results. The key findings are as follows: