Dr. Sabato's predictions

The Crystal Ball for 2006 is up. Here's the predictions from Dr. Larry Sabato at the University of Virginia.

Enter the Senate (33 Chambers)

With an effective lead of 55-45 in the Senate, Republicans continue to have the clear early edge to retain control--especially since they only have to defend 15 of the 33 seats up for election in next year. Yet Katrina, Iraq, gas prices, growing national debt, President Bush's unpopularity, and other factors might conspire to produce Democratic gains or even a takeover, as wild as that speculation appears today. Before we get into what it would take to do that, let's first take a look at the Crystal Ball's current race rankings, by outlook:

2005 Senate Make-up: 55 Republicans, 45 Democrats (Including 1 Ind.)

Senate Seats up for election in 2006: 15 Republican, 18 Democratic (Including 1. Ind.)

Current Outlook Number of Seats States
Solid Republican 9 IN, ME, MO, MS, MV, TX, UT, VA, WY
Leans Republican 3 AZ, MO, TN
Toss-up 4 MN, OH, PA, RI
Leans Democratic 7 FL, MD, ND, NE, NJ, WA, WV
Leans Ind./Dem. 1 VT
Solid Democratic 9 CA, CT, DE, HI, MA, MI, NM, NY, WI

Two Republican senators are in deep trouble, and may be ripe for the plucking. Senator Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania is already losing to Democrat Bob Casey Jr. by double-digit margins in early tracking polls---an extraordinarily weak position for an incumbent this far out from an election. In Rhode Island Senator Lincoln Chafee faces a tough GOP primary with a conservative challenger, and then if he survives, an equally difficult general election race against the winner of the Democratic primary. In this heavily Democratic state, Chafee's loss would not be terribly surprising. Yes, Santorum and Chafee are both survivors and incumbents, and they may be able to win despite daunting circumstances. But Democrats are right to eye them hungrily.

If the Democrats take both seats, the margin is 53R-47D. So where could Democrats find the remaining four seats? At the moment, there appear to be only five possibilities in the nation: the Tennessee open seat of retiring Senator Bill Frist (R), plus defeats of incumbent GOP senators Conrad Burns (MT), Mike DeWine (OH), Jon Kyl (AZ), and Jim Talent (MO). All of these are possible, none at the moment is likely.

The long and short of this analysis: Democrats have only a long-shot chance at Senate takeover, and they are short of opportunities to make it happen. Of course, if 2006 turns into a Democratic 1994, then even our mind-stretching list of upsets and perfect-D luck is a possibility. It's too early to tell, but we wouldn't bet on it, and we advise you not to bet on it either!

It's a long shot but we should be able to close the gap by a few more seats. I'm an optimist. I believe we can do it if it takes until 2008.

2005 Gubernatorial Make-up: 28 Republicans, 22 Democrats

Governorships up for election in 2006: 22 Republican, 14 Democratic

Current Outlook Number of Seats States
Solid Republican 5 ID, NE, SC, SD, TX
Leans Republican 9 CO, CT, GA, HI, MD, MN, NV, RI, VT
Toss-up 8 AK, AL, AR, CA, FL, IA, IL, MA
Leans Democratic 10 AZ, KS, ME, MI, NH, NY, OH, OR, PA, WI
Solid Democratic 4 NM, OK, TN, WY