Saturday, January 15, 2005

The Rumor Mill#2

I've looked at possible candidates for statewide office here in the Bluegrass State we call Kentucky.

Now, I'm going to take a look at other states as I make my rise through the blogosphere (Ben, how many hits do you all have?)

Kos looks at some of the seats up in 2006. However, I don't believe him to be that credible when it comes to who is retiring or not. I'd trust Greg when it comes to Texas Democrats. In red states, Democrats tend to be closer to the center than some of the progressive wing like to admit. Here is some of Greg's analysis or as he calls it, his opinion:
In preparing some notes for a meeting on Saturday, I think it's a fair statement to say that the 2006 elections are potentially very critical for the state party. I mean, even KOS is writing of a Senate race here in the state, and that's presuming it's an OPEN race!!! Heck, if you can't even have a prayer in those conditions, what is there to hope for? I'll go on record right now as stating that the outcome of the 2006 elections could well determine if Texas Dems go the way of the Idaho Democratic Party or the way of the Colorado/Montana Democratic Party. At least for the foreseeable future, that is. There's always the possibility of a Republican governor getting caught in a sex scandal with a farm animal or Troy Aikman dropping his Cowboy helmet in the ring as a Dem. Barring either of those, however, there's still a bigger issue of building the product here in Texas.

The unique characteristics of Texas make it a challenge for many a progressive: Texas is, by constitutional makeup, a limited government state. To the exasperation of more than a few liberals, the vast majority of Texans like it just fine that way ... including a good chunk of Democrats. The complexity this mandates on Texas Dems is that to run statewide is to run as a breed apart from your stereotypical Dem across this land. Sure, we all (for the most part) still think it's advantageous to put the tools in place so that kids grow up with a healthy and well-educated opportunity. There will always be a need for a safety net that government ought to provide, too. That gets us to a decent starting point of where to differentiate ourselves with the other side.
Already, Kos believes that there will be an open seat in Montana. I haven't read anything on Senator Conrad Burns retiring yet. By all looks of this site, he'll be running in 2006. Likely Democratic challengers include Attorney General and ex-Lewis and Clark County Attorney Mike McGrath and State Senate President Jon Tester.

In Texas, there is already an announced Democratic candidate, Barbara Radnofsky. Other likely Democratic challengers for the 2006 Senate race in Texas include Chris Bell, an attorney who has already served in Congress and in the Houston City Council, and John Sharp, the former State Comptroller and Railroad Commissioner. Sharp was also the 1998/2002 Lt. Governor nominee. Assuming that Senator Kay Bailey Hutchinson does indeed run for Governor of Texas, likely nominees for the senate seat include Congressman Henry Bonilla, a former TV News Journalist, and Lt. Governor David Dewhurst, a businessman who was the State Land Commissioner and served our country in the United States Air Force.

Kos already believes that Bill Frist will run for President. However, I could have sworn reading an article saying that Frist wants to go back and practice medicine when his term is up in 2006. Congressman Harold Ford, Jr. is running for the open senate seat. Rosalind Kurita is also likely to run as well as Nashville Mayor Bill Purcell. Republicans seeking the nomination are likely to be former Congressman Ed Bryant (2002 nominee), Chatanooga Mayor Bob Corker, State Representative Beth Harwell (former GOP state chairman and college professor), and former Congressman Van Hilleary (2002 Governor nominee).

Potential Senate retirements include Paul Sarbanes of Maryland and Robert C. Byrd of West Virginia. However, Jon Corzine is not resigning his seat from the Senate while he runs for Govenor of New Jersey. Regardless, Corzine will appoint his successor. Likely opposition in Maryland includes Behavioral Researcher and frequent candidate John Kimble and State Senator E.J. Pipkin (2004 nominee). If Byrd retires, the seat is a potential Republican pickup. It's Byrd's if he stays.

In states where the Republicans are up for re-election, Olympia Snowe and Lincoln Chafee, who are fairly moderate, should probably expect some sort of challenger hand-picked from the Bush administration. Likely Democrats in Rhode Island to take on Lincoln Chafee include Secretary of State Matt Brown (former teacher), Congressman Jim Langevin (Former Secretary of State & State Rep), Richard Licht (Former Lt. Governor, Attorney & '98/'00 Candidate), Former Congressman Bob Weygand (Former Lt. Governor, State Rep., Landscape Architect & '00 Nominee), and Sheldon Whitehouse (Former Attorney General, US Attorney & '02 Governor Candidate)

With regards to Democratic incumbents, the toughest races will be ran in Florida and Minnesota with Bill Nelson and Mark Dayton. Also, some toss-ups include Michigan and Washington where Debbie Stabenow and Maria Cantwell will be up for reelection. However, in strong Republican states North Dakota and Nebraska, Kent Conrad and Ben Nelson should expect to stay put no matter how much the progressive wing complains that they aren't Democrats. Joe Lieberman is a lock and there should be no primary challenges as much as the Kossacks call on him to go.

In Minnesota, Republican Congressman Mark Kennedy, Secretary of State Mary Kiffmeyer, State Rep. Phil Krinkie, and 2002 Gubernatorial Candidate Brian Sullivan are all planning to seek the Senate nomination.

In Nebraska, the following Republicans are also planning to run for the race: State Sen. Kermit Brashear, Attorney General Jon Bruning, Congressman & Ex-Lincoln City Councilman Jeff Fortenberry, State GOP Chairman & Attorney David Kramer, FEMA Official and former Lt. Governor Dave Maurstad, Dave Nabity, and RNC member Kerry Winterer.

Likely to run in Michigan against Stabenow are Oakland County Sheriff Mike Bouchard, Former State GOP Chairwoman Betsy DeVos, and Amway Corporation Founder Dick DeVos.

Washington Republicans likely to run include former Congresswoman Jennifer Dunn and former State Sen. Dino Rossi (2004 Gubernatorial Nominee).

If Chris Dodd does indeed run for Governor in Connecticutt and get elected, expect Attorney General Dick Blumenthal to get appointed to the Senate.

No Love for Michael Moore? His HS will not elect him to the school Hall of Fame anytime soon. Is it a story or non-story? You decide...

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